I've delved into this topic a few times without further elaboration, so I thought I'd spend time today trying (and most likely failing) to make what may be a fairly esoteric point. It is this: Not ...

The Basic Curve The basic probability curve looks like an anthill. Here, the X axis represents potential outcomes from worst to best, going left to right. The Y axis represents the probability of ...

At our dinner with Peter Brandt a few weeks ago, there was a point where Peter pulled out his iPad. He wanted to show us something created by a trader in his small group. (This same trader is known, ...

A popular recession forecasting tool now shows its highest reading since 1981, signaling a high probability of a downturn in the next 12 months. The S&P 500 declined by an average of 31% during the ...

For those who want to roll the dice on deflated public enterprises with proven upside potential, it’s difficult to overlook Nio (NIO). At first glance, NIO stock doesn’t seem particularly compelling, ...

After initiating a recovery process from recent concerns tied to artificial intelligence and a possible bubble brewing in the space, Oracle Corp (NYSE: ORCL) imposed a sharp reality check. Following ...

Three different methods of bootstrapping default probability curves from par credit default swap spreads are discussed. The first assumes that the default densities are constant between consecutive ...

The model shows earthquake probability curves for central Oklahoma increasing to 2015 due to brine injection. After injection is reduced and assumed to end in 2017, brine continues to diffuse in the ...

Our weekly simulation for U.S. Treasury yields and spreads. Read the latest update in the article series here, as of December ...