The Associated Press called the race for Republican David McCormick when Casey was trailing him by about 30,000 votes.

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Dave McCormick on Thursday appeared to declare victory in his race against Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. despite The Associated Press not having called the race and the possibility that the narrow margin triggers Pennsylvania’s automatic recount process.

Republican Dave McCormick was projected to defeat Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), denying him a fourth term in an upset that signals a dramatic shift in fortunes for Democrats in the country’s quintessential battleground state.